Quarterly Oil Market Update (Q2 2014)

Global oil demand in Q2 2014 increased by 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) year-on-year, whilst falls in OPEC production saw global supply limited to increases of 0.4 mbpd, year-on-year. Non-OPEC supply will exceed global demand growth in 2014 but geopolitical events will prevent any sustained fall in oil prices. As a result, we have revised our Brent oil forecasts upwards from $105 per barrel previously, to an average of $109 per barrel for 2014. We have also revised our Saudi crude production forecasts upwards to 9.7 mbpd for 2014, from 9.4 mbpd previously.