Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Oil prices have moved higher in response to the war between Israel and Hamas. Traders are concerned that the violence could intensify and spread, possibly pulling in state actors and threatening oil supply. We think these fears are overdone, but appreciate that miscalculation or over-reach by one or more of the parties involved could see containment unravel very quickly. If prices were to push durably above $100 per barrel this could tip the global economy into recession.
The General Authority for Statistics’ (GaStat) inflation release for August shows that consumer prices rose by just 2 percent year-on-year, representing the weakest price rise in 18 months.
‘Non-oil Activities’ real GDP growth accelerated to 6.1 percent, year-on-year, in Q2-23, pushing up the average for the past four quarters to 5.9 percent. Meanwhile, ‘Government Activities’, which is separate, eased back to 2.3 percent growth following a spike in Q1-23. Overall GDP growth was weighed down by cuts to oil production, and fell to 1.2 percent from 3.8 percent in Q1.