Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Macroeconomic update - December 2023: (Domestic demand remains strong)
Macroeconomic reportDomestic demand in the Kingdom remains very strong, driven by a booming projects market and firm consumption growth. Following a comparatively soft patch in Q3, the non-oil economy is picking up pace again, thanks in part to an acceleration in central government spending. We expect non-oil GDP growth to reach 5.1 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2024.
2024 Saudi Fiscal Budget
Budget reportThe government projects total expenditure for 2024 at SR1.25 trillion, which is 11 percent above the projection made in the 2023 budget, when spending was forecast to reach SR1.13 trillion next year. The projection for 2025 also rises—to 1.3 trillion, which is a substantial 15 percent higher than the forecast made last year. Despite this, the authorities expect 2024 spending to fall compared to the estimate of 2023 spending, which has been put at 1.28 trillion.
Oil Market Update - Q4 2023: (Oil prices buoyed by geo-political risk)
Oil market reportOil prices have moved higher in response to the war between Israel and Hamas. Traders are concerned that the violence could intensify and spread, possibly pulling in state actors and threatening oil supply. We think these fears are overdone, but appreciate that miscalculation or over-reach by one or more of the parties involved could see containment unravel very quickly. If prices were to push durably above $100 per barrel this could tip the global economy into recession.