Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Macroeconomic Update – August 2021: (The Saudi economy: on a very firm footing)
Macroeconomic reportBoth actual and flash estimates of the Kingdom’s GDP published by the General Authority for Statistics (GaStat) have shown strong non-oil sector growth in H1 2021. This combined with our expectation of continued growth in H2, has led us to upgrade our full year 2021 GDP forecast.
The Saudi Economy in 2021
Macroeconomic reportLooking out into 2021, while there is still a considerable degree of uncertainty as a result of the prevalence of COVID-19 and its potential impact on the non-oil economy, we nevertheless expect a broad-based recovery. Our forecast assumes between 15-20 percent of the adult population being vaccinated against COVID-19 by mid-2021, and 70 percent by year end. As such, we see a quarter-on-quarter improvement in the Saudi non-oil economy, with this recovery being more vigorous in the second half of 2021.
Saudi Labor Market Update – Q2 2021
Labor Market reportThe General Authority for Statistics’ (GaStat) latest labor market release shows that unemployment declined to 11.3 percent in Q2 2021, down from 11.7 percent in Q1.
Oil Market Update – Q4 2021: (Rising geopolitical risks)
Oil market reportGlobal oil demand grew by a healthy 6 percent year-on-year, or 5.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) last year, to an average of 96.6 mbpd. Looking ahead, whilst near-term Omicron related risks remain, so far, the response from governments around the world to surging cases have not been as severe as previous variants. Overall in full year 2022, oil demand is expected to rise by 4 percent year-on-year, to an all time high of 100.8 mbpd.
Oil Market Update – Q3 2021: (Oil to $100?)
Oil market reportBrent oil prices averaged $74 per barrel (pb) during Q3 2021, up 7 percent quarter-on-quarter, and 71 percent over the same period last year. Brent oil’s rally has continued into Q4, with the benchmark rising a further 10 percent over September levels. Whilst some supply issues in the US Gulf have contributed to the uplift in prices over the last couple of months, the rally has mainly been a result of rising oil demand.
