Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Debt, downgrade and Saudi Arabia
Macroeconomic reportAugust has so far been a very volatile month for financial markets. The chances of a new global recession have risen, though the more probable outcome is a period of low economic growth. It is likely that the Kingdom’s stock market will remain volatile, but oil prices are still at a level that will support the high government spending that will drive the Saudi economy.
Macroeconomic Update – November 2021: (All is well, but risks remain)
Macroeconomic reportThe Saudi economy is on-track to record a very strong level of growth this year, and we expect this to continue into next year. More specifically, we see the Kingdom’s economy growing by 7 percent year-on-year in 2022 as a result of sizably higher oil sector growth and robust levels of non-oil growth.
Monetary and Financial Update: Ample levels of liquidity
Macroeconomic reportThe US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) steady at a range between 0 to 0.25 percent since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020. In a meeting last week, the Fed outlined that it now expects to see interest rates rising earlier than previously anticipated, with two hikes expected in 2023.
Monetary and Financial Update June 2021
Macroeconomic reportMonetary and Financial Update June 2021
The Saudi Economy in 2021
Macroeconomic reportLooking out into 2021, while there is still a considerable degree of uncertainty as a result of the prevalence of COVID-19 and its potential impact on the non-oil economy, we nevertheless expect a broad-based recovery. Our forecast assumes between 15-20 percent of the adult population being vaccinated against COVID-19 by mid-2021, and 70 percent by year end. As such, we see a quarter-on-quarter improvement in the Saudi non-oil economy, with this recovery being more vigorous in the second half of 2021.
