Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Oil Market Update – Q2 2021: (OPEC+: a temporary divergence)
Macroeconomic reportAccording to OPEC data, Q2 2021 oil demand rose by 3 percent quarter-on-quarter and a sizable 14 percent year-on-year. The outlook for the remainder of the year is consistent with previous estimates, with oil demand expected to keep growing quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and Q4 2021. Overall, only transportation fuels (jet fuel and gasoline) are showing sizable differences in demand when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Oil Market Update – Q1 2021: (Small bump on the road to recovery)
Macroeconomic reportThe recovery in global oil demand reversed course during the first quarter of 2021, with OPECs monthly oil market report showing declines of 780 thousand barrels per day (tbpd) or -0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q1. Looking ahead, according to OPEC forecasts, oil demand will resume rising on a quarterly basis during the rest of the year, but still end up 3.5 percent lower than pre-Covid-19 levels by the end of 2021.
Quarterly Oil Market Update – Q1 2020: (COVID-19 Induced Demand Destruction)
Oil market reportThe latest monthly oil market report from OPEC lays out a bleak outlook for oil demand growth in 2020, with an average decline of 6.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) expected over the course of the year.
Quarterly Oil Market Update – Q1 2019: (US waivers on Iranian oil end)
Oil market reportA recent official statement from the US confirmed that the current set of waivers on Iranian oil would not be extended beyond May 2nd. The ending of waivers would require the cessation of all oil purchases from Iran, which averaged at least 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2019.
Quarterly Oil Market Update – Q2 2020: (Recovery in demand beginning to take shape)
Oil market reportAccording to latest OPEC forecasts, the worst seems to be over with respect to global oil demand. Whilst H1 2020 saw an average yearly decline in oil demand by nearly 12 percent, H2 2020 is expected to see declines of around 6 percent year-on-year. Overall, oil demand is expected to decline by 9 million barrels per day mbpd (or 9 percent) year-on-year in 2020.
