Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Quarterly oil market update (Q2 2015): Glut in global oil markets to persist longer
A general improvement in oil demand and slowdown in the rate of growth in US shale oil output combined to push prices up 13 percent, quarter-on-quarter, in Q2 2015. US oil production is estimated to have fallen by 4 percent, in Q2 2015, year-on-year. Increases from OPEC and non-OPEC sources, however, will ensure that global oil balances remain in surplus throughout 2015. As a result we see full year Brent crude oil averaging $61 per barrel. Domestically, Saudi crude consumption will reach 3mbpd in Q3 2015, as domestic demand peaks due to the summer months. In the last three years, quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 has averaged 250 thousand barrels per day, and we expect to see a similar quarterly rise in total crude consumption this year as well.
Quarterly Oil Market Update- Attention shifting from supply to demand.
Oil market reportBrent Oil prices dropped by 18 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2015 and averaged $50 per barrel. The market continues to witness a shift from supply to demand and no appreciable upside on oil prices is envisaged by this trend. The continued moderate pace of global economic growth will result in a 1.4 percent year-on-year global oil demand uplift with similar growth rates envisaged for 2016.
The Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Shale Oil
Oil market reportThe Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Shale Oil
The impact of lower oil prices on shale oil- US Shale Oil at an Inflection Point
Oil market reportUS shale oil production continued to increase even as oil prices tumbled 50 percent but lower oil prices have begun to take their toll. Sustained drops in US oil production are expected as oil hedges expire, financing from secured lending is tightened and the high yield debt market becomes too expensive. Aside from shale oil, the lower oil price environment will also impact global oil supply but Saudi Arabia will be the main beneficiary when global oil markets become tighter and prices rebound by 2020.
