Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Quarterly Oil Market Update- Attention shifting from supply to demand.
Oil market reportBrent Oil prices dropped by 18 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2015 and averaged $50 per barrel. The market continues to witness a shift from supply to demand and no appreciable upside on oil prices is envisaged by this trend. The continued moderate pace of global economic growth will result in a 1.4 percent year-on-year global oil demand uplift with similar growth rates envisaged for 2016.
Quarterly Oil Market Update (Q2 2014)
Oil market reportGlobal oil demand in Q2 2014 increased by 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) year-on-year, whilst falls in OPEC production saw global supply limited to increases of 0.4 mbpd, year-on-year. Non-OPEC supply will exceed global demand growth in 2014 but geopolitical events will prevent any sustained fall in oil prices. As a result, we have revised our Brent oil forecasts upwards from $105 per barrel previously, to an average of $109 per barrel for 2014. We have also revised our Saudi crude production forecasts upwards to 9.7 mbpd for 2014, from 9.4 mbpd previously.
Quarterly GDP update: (Manufactuing and oil sectors lead the growth in Q1)
Latest economic growth data released by CDSI show a real economic growth of 4.7 percent, nearly 1 percentage point higher than in the same period of 2013. Growth was unchanged compared with the previous quarter and was more dependent on the oil sector as structural changes in the labor market continued to affect the non-oil economy. As a result, a number of leading non-oil sectors registered a slowdown in growth, yet their contribution to the overall economic growth remained robust.