Macroeconomic update- June 2017: (Mild improvements in the Saudi economy, but risks remain)
Macroeconomic ReportWe have revised our 2017 forecasts to take into account the recent set of oil production and economic data. We forecast overall GDP growth to be 0.1 percent in 2017 (compared to 1.4 percent in 2016) due to a sharp decline in oil sector GDP, by -1.2 percent (compared to 3.4 percent in 2016). More positively, we forecast non-oil GDP to reach 1 percent during the same period (compared to 0.2 percent in 2016).
Macroeconomic update- November 2016: (Reform of the Saudi economy begins to take shape)
Macroeconomic ReportSince the start of 2016, and in line with targets specified in the National Transformation Program (NTP 2020), prudent policies to reform the fiscal budget have been taken, with their impact on economic performance starting to take shape. We have therefore revised some of our 2016 and 2017 forecasts to take into account this recent set of reforms.
Macroeconomic update (Sept. 2013): Oil income fuels non-oil growth and more
Macroeconomic ReportIn this report we update our forecasts for the Saudi economy taking account recent flow of data. Key findings include: Real GDP growth in the Kingdom expected to record 4 percent in 2013. Elevated current and capital expenditures will keep growth of retail, construction and transport sectors on the lead, while government services benefit from higher demand as a result of the new labor market changes. Upward revision to our oil price forecasts supports both fiscal and current account surpluses. High remittances and bigger import bill to weigh on current account balance this year, but higher oil export revenues keep it in the positive double digits territory.
