Insights

Macroeconomic update: Economic projections for 2014 revised up

We have revised some of our 2014 forecasts to take account of a recent flow of data that has generally been stronger than we had anticipated. With higher than expected year-to-date oil prices and output, we have revised up our forecast upwards for both. Higher public spending and robust credit growth should support non-oil growth with construction, transport, manufacturing and retail sectors in the lead. A slowdown in global growth and geopolitical tensions constitute key risks, though they are less acute and more evenly balanced than in recent years.