Macroeconomic update (Sept. 2013): Oil income fuels non-oil growth and more

In this report we update our forecasts for the Saudi economy taking account recent flow of data. Key findings include: Real GDP growth in the Kingdom expected to record 4 percent in 2013. Elevated current and capital expenditures will keep growth of retail, construction and transport sectors on the lead, while government services benefit from higher demand as a result of the new labor market changes. Upward revision to our oil price forecasts supports both fiscal and current account surpluses. High remittances and bigger import bill to weigh on current account balance this year, but higher oil export revenues keep it in the positive double digits territory.