Oil Market Update – Q2 2021: (OPEC+: a temporary divergence)
Oil Market ReportAccording to OPEC data, Q2 2021 oil demand rose by 3 percent quarter-on-quarter and a sizable 14 percent year-on-year. The outlook for the remainder of the year is consistent with previous estimates, with oil demand expected to keep growing quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and Q4 2021. Overall, only transportation fuels (jet fuel and gasoline) are showing sizable differences in demand when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Oil Market Update – Q1 2021: (Small bump on the road to recovery)
Oil Market ReportThe recovery in global oil demand reversed course during the first quarter of 2021, with OPEC’s monthly oil market report showing declines of 780 thousand barrels per day (tbpd) or -0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q1. Looking ahead, according to OPEC forecasts, oil demand will resume rising on a quarterly basis during the rest of the year, but still end up 3.5 percent lower than pre-Covid-19 levels by the end of 2021.
Oil Market Update – Q4 2021: (Rising geopolitical risks)
Oil Market ReportGlobal oil demand grew by a healthy 6 percent year-on-year, or 5.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) last year, to an average of 96.6 mbpd. Looking ahead, whilst near-term Omicron related risks remain, so far, the response from governments around the world to surging cases have not been as severe as previous variants. Overall in full year 2022, oil demand is expected to rise by 4 percent year-on-year, to an all time high of 100.8 mbpd.
Quarterly Oil Market Update – Q4 2020: (The only way is up?)
Oil Market ReportThe recovery in global oil demand continued through the last three months of 2020, with OPEC reporting rises of 3 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2020. Looking ahead, oil demand will continue rising in Q1 and during the rest of the year on a quarterly basis, but still end up 3 percent lower than pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2021.
Shale Oil 2.0
Oil Market ReportThe recently observed uptick in oil prices has given many US shale oil producers the opportunity to expand production. Latest forecasts from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) see US oil production rising by 10 percent year-on-year in 2017, and 3.3 percent in 2018. Nevertheless, shale oil exploration and production (E&P) companies face a number of potential ‘bumps in road that could hinder their progress and recovery in the near-to-medium term. Besides higher borrowing costs, shale oil producers also face the possibility of constrained capacity leading to inflated operating costs. One area where costs are likely to rise is related to oilfield services, which includes the cost of rigs, equipment and personnel.
