Quarterly GDP update: Oil sector dragged down overall growth in Q2
Oil Market ReportLatest economic growth data released by CDSI show a real economic growth of 3.8 percent year-on-year, 1.3 percentage point lower than in the first quarter of this year. Contribution to growth has changed compared to the previous quarter and has become more dependent on the non-oil sector. We assume that year-on-year economic growth will be lower in the second half of the year, owing to a decline in oil sector output, while the non-oil private sector will remain robust.
Quarterly Oil Market Update (Q3 2014)
Oil Market ReportIn Q3 2014 oil prices dropped by 7.3 percent to an average of $102 per barrel. We believe this was due to a combination of accelerating US supply, weaker than expected global demand, stabilization in geopolitics, and an appreciation of the dollar. Oil prices will recover slightly in Q4 2014 but ample supply from non-OPEC sources will prevent prices from rising too far beyond $100 per barrel, unless there is a significant deterioration in geopolitics in Iraq, Libya or Russia/Ukraine. We expect Saudi production to 9.5 mbpd in Q4 2014, resulting in 9.7 mbpd average for 2014. In 2015, as the global economy recovers and oil demand picks up, we see Saudi production averaging 9.6 mbpd.
Oil Market Dynamics and Saudi fiscal challenges
Oil Market ReportOil Market Dynamics and Saudi fiscal challenges
