Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Macroeconomic update (Sept. 2013): Oil income fuels non-oil growth and more
Macroeconomic reportIn this report we update our forecasts for the Saudi economy taking account recent flow of data. Key findings include: Real GDP growth in the Kingdom expected to record 4 percent in 2013. Elevated current and capital expenditures will keep growth of retail, construction and transport sectors on the lead, while government services benefit from higher demand as a result of the new labor market changes. Upward revision to our oil price forecasts supports both fiscal and current account surpluses. High remittances and bigger import bill to weigh on current account balance this year, but higher oil export revenues keep it in the positive double digits territory.
Inflation report (July 2013): Annual food inflation at 4-year high
The Central Department of Statistics and Information released Consumer Price Index inflation data for July, showing inflation at 3.7 percent year-on-year compared with 3.5 percent in June, pushed up by higher food and rental inflation while the core index maintained downward trend. As expected, food inflation increased further in July to a 4-year high owing to a seasonal trend while strong housing demand kept the upside trend of rental inflation. International conditions provide a benign backdrop to inflation in the Kingdom particularly food prices though downward pressure is likely to be limited given strong domestic inflationary factors.
Inflation report (June 2013): CPI at 3.5 percent and no signs of cost-push
The Central Department of Statistics and Information released Consumer Price Index inflation data for June, showing inflation at 3.5 percent in June compared with 3.8 percent in May, pushed down by falling core inflation and food prices while rent and housing-related services component remained flat. Our estimate of Saudi core inflation, which excludes food and rental and housing-related services, maintained its downward trend for the fourth consecutive month to record 2.2 percent year-on-year. Food inflation is expected to increase further in July owing to a seasonal trend while strong housing demand will keep the upside risk to rental inflation.
